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Chaotic dynamics are ubiquitous in many real-world systems, ranging from biological and industrial processes to climate dynamics and the spread of viruses. These systems are characterized by high sensitivity to initial conditions, making it challenging to predict their future behavior confidently. In this study, we propose a novel deep-learning framework that addresses this challenge by directly exploiting the long-term compounding of local prediction errors during model training, aiming to extend the time horizon for reliable predictions of chaotic systems. Our approach observes the future trajectories of initial errors at a time horizon, modeling the evolution of the loss to that point through the use of two major components: 1) a recurrent architecture (Error Trajectory Tracing) designed to trace the trajectories of predictive errors through phase space, and 2) a training regime, Horizon Forcing, that pushes the model’s focus out to a predetermined time horizon. We validate our method on three classic chaotic systems and six real-world time series prediction tasks with chaotic characteristics. The results show that our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. 

The understanding of chaotic systems is challenging not only for theoretical research but also for many important applications. Chaotic behavior is found in many nonlinear dynamical systems, such as those found in climate dynamics, weather, the stock market, and the space-time dynamics of virus spread. A reliable solution for these systems must handle their complex space-time dynamics and sensitive dependence on initial conditions. We develop a deep learning framework to push the time horizon at which reliable predictions can be made further into the future by better evaluating the consequences of local errors when modeling nonlinear systems. Our approach observes the future trajectories of initial errors at a time horizon to model the evolution of the loss to that point with two major components: 1) a recurrent architecture, Error Trajectory Tracing, that is designed to trace the trajectories of predictive errors through phase space, and 2) a training regime, Horizon Forcing, that pushes the model’s focus out to a predetermined time horizon. We validate our method on classic chaotic systems and real-world time series prediction tasks with chaotic characteristics, and show that our approach outperforms the current state-of-the-art methods. 

Complex contagion models have been developed to understand a wide range of social phenomena such as adoption of cultural fads, the diffusion of belief, norms, and innovations in social networks, and the rise of collective action to join a riot. Most existing works focus on contagions where individuals’ states are represented by binary variables, and propagation takes place over a single isolated network. However, characterization of an individual’s standing on a given matter as a binary state might be overly simplistic as most of our opinions, feelings, and perceptions vary over more than two states. Also, most real-world contagions take place over multiple networks (e.g., Twitter and Facebook) or involve multiplex networks where individuals engage in different types of relationships (e.g., co-worker, family, etc.). To this end, this paper studies multi-stage complex contagions that take place over multi-layer or multiplex networks. Under a linear threshold based contagion model, we first give analytic results for the expected size of global cascades, i.e., cases where a randomly chosen node can initiate a propagation that eventually reaches a positive fraction of the whole population. Then, analytic results are confirmed by an extensive numerical study. In addition, we demonstrate how the dynamics of complex contagions is affected by the structural properties of the networks. In particular, we reveal an interesting connection between the assortativity of a network and the impact of hyper-active nodes on the cascade size. 

Spread of influence is one of the most widely studied propagation processes in the literature on complex networks. Examples include the rise of collective action to join a riot and diffusion of beliefs, norms, and cultural fads, to name a few. Most existing works on modeling influence propagation consider a single content (e.g., an opinion, decision, product, political view, etc.) spreading over a network independent from everything else. However, most real-life examples involve multiple correlated contents spreading simultaneously and exhibiting positive (e.g., opinions on same-sex marriage and gun control) or negative (e.g., opinions on universal health care and tax-relief for the “rich”) correlation. To accommodate these cases, this paper proposes the vector threshold model, as an extension of the widely used Watts threshold model for complex contagions. Here, the state of a node is represented by a binary vector representing their opinion on a number of content items. Nodes switch their states based on the influence they receive from their neighbors in the network. The influence is represented by a vector containing the proportion of neighbors who support each content; both positively and negatively correlated contents can be captured in this formulation by using different rules for switching node states. Our main result is concerned with the expected size of global cascades, i.e., cases where a randomly chosen node can initiate a propagation that eventually reaches a positive fraction of the whole population. We also derive conditions on network structure for global cascades to be possible. Analytic results are supported by a numerical study. 

A common theme among previously proposed models for network epidemics is the assumption that the propagating object (e.g., a pathogen [in the context of infectious disease propagation] or a piece of information [in the context of information propagation]) is transferred across network nodes without going through any modification or evolutionary adaptations. However, in real-life spreading processes, pathogens often evolve in response to changing environments and medical interventions, and information is often modified by individuals before being forwarded. In this article, we investigate the effects of evolutionary adaptations on spreading processes in complex networks with the aim of 1) revealing the role of evolutionary adaptations on the threshold, probability, and final size of epidemics and 2) exploring the interplay between the structural properties of the network and the evolutionary adaptations of the spreading process.